Will Your Gas Bill Go Up This Winter? What the ACCC Supply Warning Means
The ACCC has flagged a potential 12 petajoule gas shortfall on Australia’s east coast for the July–September quarter of 2026. If it happens, it would be the tightest gas supply period in years — and southern states would bear the brunt.
For the roughly 5.3 million Australian households with gas connections, the question is straightforward: should you expect a higher gas bill this winter, and is there anything you can do about it?
Here is what the supply warning actually means, which states are most exposed, and the practical steps available to you before winter hits.
TL;DR
The ACCC’s March 2026 gas inquiry found east coast gas supply could fall short by up to 12 PJ in Q3 2026 (winter), depending on how much gas Queensland LNG producers export versus keeping for domestic use. Southern states (VIC, NSW, SA, TAS, ACT) are most vulnerable because local production from Bass Strait is declining. Wholesale prices are steady at around $13–14/GJ — well below 2022–23 crisis levels — but the supply risk is real. If you are on gas, comparing plans, switching to a fixed rate, or accelerating the shift to electric heating and hot water are the main levers available.
What Did the ACCC Actually Find?
The ACCC publishes quarterly gas supply forecasts as part of its ongoing Gas Inquiry (2017–2030). The March 2026 report found:
- Q2 2026 (April–June): Supply ranges from a 15 PJ surplus to an 8 PJ shortfall, depending on LNG export volumes
- Q3 2026 (July–September): Supply ranges from a 3 PJ surplus to a 12 PJ shortfall
- July 2026 alone: A projected 16 PJ supply gap in southern states
The swing factor is Queensland LNG producers. When international gas prices are high, producers have an incentive to export uncontracted gas rather than supply the domestic market. The entire difference between surplus and shortage hinges on their allocation decisions.
ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb noted that storage — particularly the Iona facility in Melbourne’s west — is critical to bridging the gap. As of March 2026, Iona was at 91% capacity and on track to be full by early May (source: AEMO).
Sources: ACCC — tight supply Q2 2026, ACCC — storage vital Q3 2026.
Which States Are Most at Risk?
The short answer: the further south you are, the more exposed.
| State | Gas use per household | Risk level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIC | ~49,800 MJ/yr (highest nationally) | Highest | 76–88% of homes have gas; relies on declining Bass Strait + Iona storage |
| SA | Moderate | High | Limited local production; depends on pipeline flows from QLD |
| NSW | Moderate | High | Depends on pipeline flows; large urban gas consumption |
| ACT | Moderate | High | Entirely dependent on NSW pipeline supply |
| TAS | Low (~5% of homes on gas) | Low–Medium | Small gas network, most homes use electricity |
| QLD | ~7,400 MJ/yr (lowest) | Low | Has local production surplus; exports are the issue, not local supply |
Victoria stands out: it uses nearly 7 times more gas per household than Queensland, and approximately 47% of that consumption occurs during winter. The decline of Bass Strait production — which historically supplied about 40% of eastern Australia’s gas — is the structural driver of Victoria’s vulnerability.
What Does This Mean for Gas Bills?
Wholesale prices are stable — for now
Wholesale gas contract prices for 2026 delivery are sitting at approximately $13.55/GJ (producer contracts) to $13.93/GJ (retailer contracts). This is:
- Up roughly 3–4% from late 2025
- Well below the crisis levels of 2022–23 (when spot prices exceeded $40/GJ)
- Close to the government’s $12/GJ “reasonable price” cap under the Mandatory Gas Market Code
The government introduced this price cap in July 2023, enforced by the ACCC. Producers can receive exemptions if they make binding domestic supply commitments.
Source: ACCC Gas Inquiry March 2026 Interim Report.
Average residential gas bills by state
| State | Estimated annual gas bill | Usage rate (c/MJ) |
|---|---|---|
| SA | ~$1,480 | 3.05 |
| NSW | ~$1,320 | 2.72 |
| VIC | ~$1,240 | 2.58 |
| QLD | ~$1,090 | 2.45 |
Estimates based on average residential consumption. Source: EnergyPlans, April 2026. Individual bills vary by usage, plan, and location.
Will retail prices increase?
The honest answer: it depends on whether the shortfall scenario materialises. If Iona storage fills on schedule and LNG producers allocate sufficient gas domestically, retail prices may hold steady. If the supply tightens beyond forecasts, retailers on variable wholesale contracts would face higher input costs — and some of that would flow through to retail pricing.
The most likely scenario for winter 2026: modest upward pressure on gas bills, not a crisis, but Victorian and SA households should expect their winter gas bills to be at least as high as last year, possibly 5–10% higher.
What Can You Do Before Winter?
1. Compare and switch gas plans
Gas retail competition exists in VIC, NSW, SA, SE QLD, and the ACT. If you have not compared gas plans in the past 12 months, you may be on a standing offer or an expired promotional rate.
Multiple retailers offer fixed-rate gas plans with 12-month benefit periods and no exit fees. Locking in a rate before winter means your per-MJ charge does not change even if wholesale prices spike during the cold months.
Compare gas plans at internest.com.au/energy — see both gas and electricity plans for your postcode. No commission, no sign-up.
2. Check your gas concessions
If you hold a concession card, you may be eligible for gas-specific rebates:
- Victoria: Winter Gas Concession — 17.5% off gas usage and service charges, 1 May to 30 October, for concession card holders. Also: Utility Relief Grant up to $650 per utility for hardship.
- NSW, SA, QLD, ACT: State concession card rebates apply to gas bills. Amounts vary by state — check your state energy rebate guide.
The federal Energy Bill Relief Fund ended on 31 December 2025. There are no universal gas rebates for winter 2026.
3. Reduce gas usage (quick wins)
The cheapest gas is gas you do not use. Before winter:
- Draught-proof doors and windows — the single biggest efficiency gain for most homes
- Set your gas heater thermostat to 18–20°C (each degree above costs approximately 10% more)
- Close doors to rooms you are not using — do not heat the whole house
- Service your gas heater before winter — dirty or malfunctioning heaters use significantly more gas
- Run your dishwasher and washing machine on cold cycles where possible
4. Consider the bigger move: gas to electric
If your gas heater or gas hot water system is due for replacement, this winter’s supply uncertainty adds another reason to consider switching to electric.
Heat pump hot water vs gas storage:
| Gas storage | Heat pump | |
|---|---|---|
| Running cost | ~$400–600/year | ~$300–400/year (without solar) |
| Running cost with solar PV | — | ~$50–100/year |
| Efficiency | Standard | 60–70% more efficient |
| Upfront cost | $1,500–2,500 | $2,200–6,800 before rebates |
| VIC after rebates (VEU + STCs) | — | ~$1,500–2,500 |
Victoria has banned new gas connections in homes requiring planning permits since January 2024, and multiple councils are progressing electrification mandates. The direction of policy is clear — gas is being phased out of residential homes over the coming decade.
For renters: talk to your landlord about energy efficiency upgrades. Victorian renters can request minimum efficiency standards under the Residential Tenancies Act.
The Bigger Picture: Why Gas Supply Keeps Getting Tighter
Three structural factors are converging:
- Bass Strait is declining. Production from the Gippsland Basin — historically eastern Australia’s backbone gas supply — has been falling for years. Australian gas production dropped approximately 176.5 billion cubic feet year-on-year in 2023, primarily from Bass Strait (source: IEEFA).
- LNG exports compete with domestic supply. Queensland produces more gas than the domestic market needs, but much of it is exported as LNG. When international prices rise, producers have an economic incentive to export rather than supply domestically. The ACCC’s entire shortfall range — surplus to deficit — depends on producer export decisions.
- Pipeline capacity limits north–south flows. Getting gas from Queensland’s surplus to southern states requires pipeline infrastructure. The APA East Coast Gas Grid Expansion (Stage 3A) is improving capacity, but the system remains constrained during peak winter demand.
AEMO’s 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) notes that the near-term outlook has improved compared to last year, partly due to pipeline upgrades, battery build-out reducing gas-for-power demand, and the Eraring power station closure delay. However, peak day shortfall risks are still forecast for southern regions from winter 2029 onwards (source: AEMO 2026 GSOO).
Frequently Asked Questions
Will gas prices spike this winter?
Wholesale prices are currently stable at $13–14/GJ, well below crisis levels. A moderate increase is possible if the supply shortfall scenario materialises, but a 2022-style price spike is unlikely given the government’s $12/GJ price cap mechanism and improved storage levels. Retail gas bills may be 5–10% higher than last winter for southern state households.
Should I lock in a fixed gas rate?
If you are in a state with gas retail competition (VIC, NSW, SA, SE QLD, ACT), a fixed-rate plan protects you from any winter wholesale price increases. Most fixed plans have 12-month benefit periods and no exit fees. Compare what is available before winter starts.
Which states have gas retail competition?
VIC, NSW, SA, SE QLD, and ACT have full retail gas competition — you can compare and switch providers. Tasmania has very limited gas infrastructure. WA and NT operate separate markets.
Is it worth switching from gas to electric?
For hot water: heat pumps are cheaper to run than gas storage systems ($300–400/year vs $400–600/year), and significantly cheaper with rooftop solar. For heating: reverse-cycle air conditioners are approximately 3–5 times more efficient than gas ducted heating. The upfront cost is higher, but Victorian rebates can bring heat pump costs down to $1,500–2,500.
What happened to the Energy Bill Relief Fund?
The federal Energy Bill Relief Fund ended on 31 December 2025. There are no universal gas or electricity rebates for 2026. State-specific concessions for concession card holders continue.
Does the gas supply warning mean blackouts?
No. The ACCC warning relates to commercial gas supply, not electricity generation. Gas-fired power generation has been declining as batteries and renewables take a larger share. AEMO has noted that battery build-out is reducing dependence on gas for electricity, which actually improves the gas supply situation for residential use.
General information only, not personal financial or energy advice. Gas supply forecasts sourced from the ACCC Gas Inquiry March 2026 Interim Report and AEMO 2026 GSOO. Retail gas bill estimates from EnergyPlans, April 2026. All estimates based on average consumption patterns and subject to change. Individual bills vary by location, usage, and plan.